Best of the Web. No weak links here:Brian Burke, Advanced NFL Stats, on onside kicks and expectations: With 4 minutes left in the first quarter of last week’s Cardinals-Seahawks game, Arizona’s Neil Rackers booted a short but high ‘pooch’ kick that was quickly recovered by the kicking team. The kick recovery was worth a very considerable +0.12 WP. The Cardinals went on to score a touchdown, taking a 14-0 lead. How smart are onside gambles like this?Mike Tanier, Football Outsiders, on how subpar
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(Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.)Last week’s game probabilities fared pretty well, going 12-1-1, but please don’t expect that kind of accuracy every week. In fact, I’ll be the first to tell you my system isn’t that good. For one thing, it’s not possible to be that good. In my post last week, I alluded to how much luck plays a role in N.F.L.
(Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.)For the past three seasons, I’ve published weekly game probabilities at my site, but this year they’ll be featured here at the Fifth Down. In this post, I’ll explain how the predictions work. When I originally constructed this model, the goal wasn’t to predict game outcomes but to identify how important the v
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After the Redskins lost to the Lions on Sunday, Chris Chase of Shutdown Corner opened his blog post this way: Jim Zorn needs to go.Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats closed his blog post this way:Zorn’s decisions did not cost them the game, and in fact, he gave them their best chance of winning. I realize a lot of Redskins fans won’t understand this, and I have no delusions of convincing all of them. I agree that many criticisms of Zorn as a head coach are valid, but his unconventional decision
After the Dolphins racked up a huge time of possession figure but lost to the Colts on Monday night, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats started thinking about how much time of possession matters . Now, obviously, time of possession can come as a byproduct of some good things, like moving the ball and converting 3rd downs, but here he's talking about holding everything else (yards, efficiency, etc.) equal and just asking how much T.O.P. contributes to winning in and of itself.
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