Statistics Show There’s No Harm in Starting a Rookie Quarterback

By BRIAN BURKE (Editor’s note: Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats is a guest blogger this week. His site, a combination of football, math and common sense, is well worth a visit.)For Jets Coach Rex Ryan and Lions Coach Jim Schwartz, there may be no bigger decision this preseason than whether to start their rookie quarterbacks. One consideration often debated is if starting a rookie QB somehow harms his long-term development. Or will a year holding a clipboard allow Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanch

Statistics Show There’s No Harm in Starting a Rookie Quarterback

(Editor’s note: Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats is a guest blogger this week. His site, a combination of football, math and common sense, is well worth a visit.)For Jets Coach Rex Ryan and Lions Coach Jim Schwartz, there may be no bigger decision this preseason than whether to start their rookie quarterbacks. One consideration often debated is if starting a rookie QB somehow harms his long-term development. Or will a year holding a clipboard allow Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez to adapt t

How Many Wins Is Cutler Worth?

(Editor’s note: Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats is a guest blogger this week. His site, a combination of football, math and common sense, is well worth a visit.)How much difference can a Pro Bowl quarterback make? Chicago fans are understandably excited to have a bona fide franchise quarterback. In his second full year as a starter, Jay Cutler earned a trip to the Pro Bowl with a very solid stat sheet. He averaged 7.3 yards per attempt (YPA) compared with a league average of 6.3 YPA. We can

Cutler’s Interceptions: The Context Matters

(Editor’s note: Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats is a guest blogger this week. His site, a combination of football, math and common sense, is well worth a visit.)Jay Cutler, the Pro Bowl quarterback traded to Chicago this off-season, threw 18 interceptions in 2008, second most in the N.F.L. behind Brett Favre. With so many interceptions, why is he considered a franchise QB? First, keep in mind that Cutler threw the second-most pass attempts of any quarterback last year. His interception rate

An Antidote to Jets Pessimism

(Editor’s note: Today we introduce Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats, who will be a guest blogger for a week. His site, a combination of football, math and common sense, is well worth a visit.)In 2005, the expert consensus was that the Jets would win 9 or 10 games. They won 4. In 2006, the prediction was 5 or 6 games. They won 10. In 2007, the experts said 8 wins and the Jets won half that. In 2008, the Jets accommodated the predictions slightly better by winning 9 games compared to the predict